Investment Case for HDRO, the Defiance Next Gen H2 ETF

Investment Case for HDRO, the Defiance Next Gen H2 ETF

Download the PDF

HDRO is a next generation ETF that allows retail clients to invest in hydrogen, by offering exposure to hydrogen stocks at the forefront of innovation towards a greener, more sustainable economy.

90% of the world’s energy consumption is currently provided by fossil fuels, which are non-renewable and harm the environment, contributing to global warming.1 As natural reserves dwindle, and populations grow, there is a clear need to find clean, sustainable energy solutions to meet increasing demand. None of the existing alternative energy sources such as solar, wind or biomass are able to provide sufficient, consistent and cost-effective energy supply. Electrification alone cannot reduce emissions to zero.

Global attention is now, more than ever, focused on sustainability and decarbonization. Biden’s election to US President has further propelled the green agenda to the fore, with the USA and EU both committing to be climate-neutral by 2050. Environmental factors are combining with political will to make steps towards a greener future not just a luxury, but a necessity.

Attention has turned to hydrogen as a green fuel with the potential to transform how we harness, store and use energy. Extensive R&D budgets are pushing innovation in the sector, as governments, industry and science recognize the potential of the hydrogen economy.

Source: https://www.cas.org/blog/hydrogen-fuels-research

Bank of America has compared the current phase of the hydrogen market to smartphones pre-2007 and the internet pre-dot.com. It estimates that hydrogen will generate 24% of our energy needs by 2050, creating as much as $11 trillion in investment opportunities over the next three decades.2

Hydrogen fuel is already in use in specific pilot projects. The UK already has 7 active hydrogen refueling stations, with others in process. As of mid2020, according to the US Department of Energy, there were 43 retail hydrogen stations open in the state of California, and 19 in construction, while the cost of these larger stations has decreased by 40 percent over the last few years.3 California is also home to over half of the global population of Fuel Cell Elective Vehicles (FCEVs), and the largest number of FCEVs in the hands of private consumers in the world, with nearly 7,000 of them on the road. In further examples, Amazon and Walmart now use hydrogen-powered forklifts in their warehouses,4 fuel cell bus fleets are being rolled out in China and Europe and the world’s first fuel cell train has seen a successful trial in northern Germany.5 At the 2021 Summer Olympics in Japan, hydrogen-powered buses will be used to transport athletes.6

What is hydrogen and how can it be used as a fuel?

Hydrogen is the first element in the periodic table and the most abundant atom in the universe. It comprises about 90% of the world’s atomic material, but does not occur naturally alone. Once isolated, hydrogen functions both as a fuel and an energy carrier; it can store and transfer energy over time and space.

There are a number of ways to extract hydrogen from its compound elements, but electrolysis has emerged as the method with the greatest potential to produce large-scale, low-carbon hydrogen at a reasonable cost.

Electrolysis involves passing electricity through water in order to separate its atoms (hydrogen and oxygen), thereby allowing for the harvest of hydrogen. Until now the overwhelming majority of hydrogen has been produced using fossil fuels or natural gas (so-called “grey hydrogen”), but if the electricity used to activate this process is from renewable energy sources, the product is termed “green hydrogen.” The cost of electrolyzers to produce hydrogen has fallen by up to 50% in the past 5 years, and is projected to fall a further 40-60% by 2030.7

After electrolysis, the hydrogen is stored to be used later. Hydrogen can collect excess energy created at certain times of the day or year or in particular locations, and distribute it at other locations or times where supply is lower. It can meet peak demand and offer long-duration discharge cycles (greater than 12 hours) that other technologies currently lack. Hydrogen is much less dense than air, and therefore requires high quality storage conditions in a pressurize container. Its storage has posed one of the biggest commercialization challenges, and finding the balance of durability, weight and cost of storage has therefore been the focus of most hydrogen-fuel research over the past decade.

After storage and transportation, the hydrogen is passed into a fuel cell in order to transfer its energy. The fuel cell includes a catalyst which separates the protons and electrons in the hydrogen. The protons then pass through a selectively permeable membrane, but the electrons are unable to pass, forcing them through a circuit and thereby creating electric current. When the electrons and protons recombine on the other side of the circuit, they reform into hydrogen. Oxygen is then introduced, and the hydrogen combines with the oxygen in the air to form H2O or water, the harmless and environmentally friendly waste product of such a fuel cell.

Source: “Game Changer: How Green Hydrogen Could Fuel Our Future”, Merrill Analysis. https://www.ml.com/articles/green-hydrogen-climate-change.html

Isn’t it too dangerous / costly / difficult to use hydrogen this way?

Positioning hydrogen as the energy carrier of choice and creating a vibrant, competitive hydrogen economy, depends on the coalescence of three factors: 1. Technology, 2. Economics and 3. Environment. Once these three elements are aligned, they have the potential to overcome challenges and drive the market forward towards a hydrogen-powered future.

1.Technology

Use cases for hydrogen fuel are multiplying (see below for further examples). From power generation and grid balancing to industrial fuel, feedstock for industry and transportation fuel, to heating, aerospace
and shipping, the potential applications are already being developed. Concerns over safety have been addressed – Hydrogen is as flammable as other fuels, but its low density means that it very quickly dissipates into the air and if it does burn, it does so at a lower temperature.8

2. Economics

Hydrogen extraction tech has been around for decades, but the falling cost of renewable energy and electrolyzers used to produce green hydrogen, is bringing us ever closer to commercially viable hydrogen use. The challenge of safe and effective storage for hydrogen has largely been met, with affordability coming from economies of scale and supported by policies and government incentives.

3. Environment

As costs come down, the economics of the hydrogen market remain inseparable from the policy environment. Global commitment to sustainability and decarbonization are manifesting in concrete
policies that penalize emissions and incentivize green energy. For example, the Energy Policy Act of 2005 calls for a wide-reaching research and development program on technologies relating to the production, purification, distribution, storage, and use of hydrogen energy, fuel cells, and related infrastructure with the goal of demonstrating and commercializing the use of hydrogen for transportation, utility, industrial, commercial, and residential applications. The European Commission’s European Hydrogen Strategy, and various national hydrogen strategies also promote the use and export of renewable energy (e.g. Australia, Germany, France, China).

Where do we
stand now?

Green hydrogen production currently costs substantially more than the more common “gray” hydrogen made from natural gas. However government policies and incentives are already combining with
established industries to pursue progress towards clean energy goals. Market forces also point to potential in the hydrogen market, as ESG (environmental, social and governance) criteria increasingly
figure in investment decisions.

Policy commitment to a hydrogen future is essential to bridge the early infrastructure and rollout costs. In Asia and the European Union, in coordination with industry, governments are now investing more than $2 billion every year in hydrogen as a promising energy carrier.9 The US Department of Energy funding for hydrogen and fuel cells has ranged from approximately $100 million to $280 million per year over the last decade, with approximately $150 million per year since 2017. Japan has announced hydrogen funding of approximately $560 million for 2019. China has announced hydrogen transport industry investments of more than $17 billion until 2023. In Europe, Germany’s investment includes $110 million annually to fund research laboratories to test new hydrogen technologies for industrial-scale applications.10 The European Union recently made its European Hydrogen Strategy the centerpiece of its Green Deal—while Australia, Japan, China, the United Kingdom and Korea all have green hydrogen strategies and/or targets of their own.11

In addition to the active hydrogen projects mentioned above, existing use cases for hydrogen may be among the first green hydrogen opportunities to be financeable, because the offtake picture will be clearer and easier to model.

  1. For example, in the production of ammonia, there is a project under development in Saudi Arabia benefitting from an offtake arrangement with Air Products, a project in Louisiana sponsored by CF Industries.
  2. In petroleum refiners, which are among the largest users of hydrogen as a fuel stock, there are several pilot projects under development. For example, a high-profile effort by BP and Ørsted aims to produce green hydrogen using offshore wind to power a 50-megawatt electrolyzer, replacing natural gas-produced hydrogen at BP’s Lingen refinery in Germany.12
  3. A third early use-case is fuel cells for specialty vehicles. Plug Power — a leading supplier of fuel cells for use in forklifts and other specialty working vehicles — has entered into partnerships with Apex
    Clean Energy and Brookfield Renewable Partners. The two developers will build utility-scale wind and solar projects whose output will be used to generate green hydrogen for use by Plug Power. The US is a global leader in the development of fuel cell applications that compete with incumbent technologies. For example, more than 25,000 fuel cell–powered material handling products, such as forklifts, are operating in warehouses and distribution facilities across the country. There are over 8,000 small-scale fuel cell systems operating across 40 states, primarily for cell phone towers and remote communications networks. In total, there are over 550 MW of installed or planned fuel cells for large-scale stationary power. Research suggests that the FCEV market is gaining momentum and could reach 240,000 FCEVs worldwide by 2030, supported by cost reductions and government policies.13

In Utah, a 1,900-megawatt power plant is being converted into an 840 megawatt blended natural gas and hydrogen plant, with the goal of becoming 100% hydrogen powered in the coming decades. In South Africa, Anglo American, Ballard and ENGIE have partnered in a project to retrofit an ultra-heavyduty mining truck with fuel cells. Plug Power and Nel Hydrogen are developing a refueling system and an electrolyzer for use on-site.

Where could we be in the future?

Source: “Roadmap to a US hydrogen Economy,” Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020,
p.17. https://static1.squarespace.
com/static/53ab1feee4b0bef0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/
Road+Map+to+a+US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf

Hydrogen fuel cells often receive the most attention. But the potential economic implications of hydrogen fuel are much more far-reaching. Metals, mining and steel production, which currently tend to have large carbon footprints, could also see significant up-take. Commercial adoption of hydrogen-fueled transport fleets would stimulate demand for the fueling infrastructure—pipelines, storage and transport. Longer-term, we may even see the adoption of green hydrogen among companies involved in aerospace and shipping and new component industries could also capitalize on the increased demand – platinum for example, is a key part of both fuel cells and electrolyzers.

Assuming a context of strong state and regional support for low-carbon initiatives, collaborative partnerships with key stakeholders to resolve the challenges in scaling hydrogen, and business recognition of its potential, hydrogen demand in the US could reach 17 million metric tons by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, roughly equivalent to 14 percent of final energy demand (excluding demand from industrial feedstock).14 The energy density of compressed hydrogen allows for much longer distances than Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). FCEVs are a better option for those seeking quicker refueling, longer range, higher payload, and more cargo volume. Commercial FCEV fleets of small delivery trucks, buses, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks could therefore make up around 10 percent of commercial fleets and trucks sales in 2030, and 35 percent by 2050.15

Uptake of private use for FCEVs will depend on falling costs. Estimates show that increasing fueling station size for light-duty vehicles from 350 kg of hydrogen per day to 1,000 kg of hydrogen per day, plus reducing the cost of capital-intensive equipment like compressors, liquid pumps, and storage materials through supply chain development, economies of scale, manufacturing innovations, and increase in station utilization, could lower hydrogen cost at the pump by approximately 50 percent by 2025, reaching $7 per kg.16 With further system design and manufacturing improvement and station capacity increased to 3,000 kg per day, hydrogen cost at the pump could reach $5 per kg, rendering it competitive with other fuel options. An estimated 45 percent of data centers could use hydrogen fuel cells as backup power by 2030, rising to 65% by 2050. Industry leaders like Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft could create annual demand for 1,500 MW of stationary power capacity by 2030.17

What can investors expect from HDRO?

HDRO, the Defiance Next Gen H2 ETF, tracks the BlueStar Global Hydrogen & Next Gen Fuel Cell Index. The index is rules-based and tracks the performance of a group of globally listed equities and of companies, who generate at least 50% of their revenue from their involvement in the development of hydrogen-based energy sources, fuel cell technologies and industrial gases.

HDRO allows investors to express a targeted view of future energy markets. It offers diversified exposure to the full spectrum of the hydrogen economy without over exposure to any one company in this new and developing market. The index includes the most liquid, best hydrogen stocks in the marketplace.

Examples include:

  • Plug Power, developer of hydrogen and Fuel Cell technology whose customers include NASA, Amazon, Home Depot, Boeing, WalMart, and BMW;
  • Bloom Energy, who have developed an on-site electric power solution that is one of the most efficient and cleanest in the world;
  • Fuel Cell, who have already created SureSource power plants over 3 continents that can provide local hydrogen production, on-site power generation, and long duration energy storage;
  • ITM Power, who already built 7 hydrogen refueling stations in the UK and aim to reach 100 within five years.

Download the PDF

1 “Research trends and opportunities in hydrogen fuels,” Naum Sayfullin, June 4, 2020. https://www.cas.org/blog/hydrogen-fuels-research

2 “Thematic Investing: The Special 1 – Hydrogen primer,” Bank of America Securities, Global Research, 23 September 2020, p.1 and 6.

3 “Roadmap to a US hydrogen Economy,” Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020, p.70 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53ab1feee4b0bef0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/Road+Map+to+a+US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf

4 “Thematic Investing: The Special 1 – Hydrogen primer,” Bank of America Securities, Global Research, 23 September 2020, p.54.

5 “Emerging opportunities in the hydrogen market,” Rachel Crouch, December 9, 2020.
https://www.projectfinance.law/publications/2020/december/emerging-opportunities-in-the-hydrogen-market/

6 “Research trends and opportunities in hydrogen fuels,” Naum Sayfullin, CAS, June 4, 2020. https://www.cas.org/blog/hydrogen-fuels-research

7 “Thematic Investing: The Special 1 – Hydrogen primer,” Bank of America Securities, Global Research, 23 September 2020, p.5.

8 “So just how dangerous is hydrogen fuel?” Jacob Leachman, Washington State University, March 17, 2017.
https://hydrogen.wsu.edu/2017/03/17/so-just-how-dangerous-is-hydrogen-fuel/

9 “ to a US hydrogen Economy,” Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020, p.4. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53ab1feee4b0bef0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/Road+Map+to+a+US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf

10 “Roadmap to a US hydrogen Economy,” Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020, p.8. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53ab1feee4b0bef0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/Road+Map+to+a+US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf

11 “Game Changer: How Green Hydrogen Could Fuel Our Future” , Merrill Analysis. https://www.ml.com/articles/green-hydrogen-climate-change.html

12 “Emerging opportunities in the hydrogen market,” Rachel Crouch, December 9, 2020. https://www.projectfinance.law/publications/2020/december/emerging-opportunities-in-the-hydrogen-market/

13 “Game Changer: How Green Hydrogen Could Fuel Our Future”, Merrill Analysis. https://www.ml.com/articles/green-hydrogen-climate-change.html

14 “Roadmap to a US hydrogen Economy,” Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020, p.26. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53ab1feee4b0bef0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/Road+Map+to+a+US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf

15 “Roadmap to a US hydrogen Economy,” Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020, p.36-37. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53ab1feee4b0bef0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/Road+Map+to+a+US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf

16 “Roadmap to a US hydrogen Economy,” Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020, p.63. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53ab1feee4b0bef0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/Road+Map+to+a+US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf

17 “Roadmap to a US hydrogen Economy,” Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020, p.55. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/53ab1feee4b0be- f0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/Road+Map+to+a+US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf